Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 20.492201 21.620038 22.805181 24.148279 25.634194 27.234868 29.099071
2026-01-04 18.482362 20.013433 21.698394 23.707479 26.061233 28.761833 32.140734
2026-01-11 17.673280 19.480394 21.534055 24.074061 27.180327 30.924889 35.895708
2026-01-18 16.971399 18.965482 21.289335 24.249398 28.000536 32.718734 39.324373
2026-01-25 16.143926 18.222068 20.689069 23.901672 28.085806 33.528715 41.490013
2026-02-01 15.417441 17.545203 20.109958 23.512357 28.048683 34.126392 43.375755
2026-02-08 14.569798 16.671238 19.230288 22.668055 27.326008 33.697165 43.674023
2026-02-15 14.367854 16.583134 19.325221 23.084575 28.315112 35.722559 47.910072
2026-02-22 14.103797 16.398514 19.278874 23.298160 29.023092 37.390529 51.813280
2026-03-01 13.551508 15.820624 18.691062 22.736477 28.576223 37.269352 52.676103
2026-03-08 12.702289 14.833662 17.531403 21.336236 26.834175 35.029775 49.585519
2026-03-15 12.360315 14.493827 17.215653 21.093681 26.775512 35.409946 51.210871
2026-03-22 12.086758 14.278604 17.115103 21.232535 27.422541 37.179807 56.116499
2026-03-29 11.634731 13.817421 16.671139 20.869935 27.303343 37.728539 58.918203
2026-04-05 11.454785 13.704596 16.688730 21.164771 28.214476 40.117764 66.112781
2026-04-12 11.238759 13.531120 16.609495 21.304914 28.883072 42.168304 73.258465
2026-04-19 10.906339 13.184820 16.269373 21.026597 28.831418 42.871515 77.400734
2026-04-26 10.586833 12.844145 15.921606 20.714234 28.692415 43.382941 81.232347
2026-05-03 10.174914 12.363026 15.355081 20.034101 27.872156 42.452199 80.806901
2026-05-10 10.091720 12.334439 15.437353 20.370099 28.843074 45.271430 92.480514
2026-05-17 9.965838 12.240537 15.418766 20.542040 29.534618 47.623713 104.136090
2026-05-24 9.672401 11.901136 15.026210 20.089359 29.047337 47.316850 106.290239
2026-05-31 9.199750 11.298284 14.229695 18.953541 27.240746 43.896099 95.820855